 UPDATE 03/10, WEDNESDAY...
Atlanta Housing Market Update:
I am providing the data below on a monthly basis, unless there are items that change during the month, like interest rates on a daily basis or something changes in the law or the markets. Check the 2 charts below for data by county in Northeast Atlanta suburbs. There is also separate advice for home sellers and home buyers... check below! What we have been waiting for... RATES IN THE 4'S OR 5'S & IS NOW AT 4.7500% - 5.250%, depending on points you need to pay and the type of loan! Interest rates change daily... sometimes more often. These rates are very low! To get the current rate that you qualify for, you need to check with your lender or call me. New Credit Scoring: This affects us all, good or bad... Click Here! TAX CREDIT: The tax credit of $8,000 has been extended to April 30th, 2010. As long as you are under contract as of that date, you have another 60 days to close, June 30th. The first-time home buyer tax credit now is to include buyers in the "trade-in" or "move-up" market. The bill establishes a new $6,500 tax credit for "move-up" buyers so long as the home they are leaving has been their principal residence for five years or more. The bill establishes income limits of $125,000 for an individual or $225,000 for a couple for both credits. The cost of the home being purchased may not exceed $800,000 in order to be eligible for the credit. For a chart with the details, click here. Foreclosures ... They are claiming that 1 in 5 homes are either delinquent on their loan or are in foreclosure. Now, news is that 2 in 5 of these foreclosure homes are in such bad shape that a mortgage cannot be obtained on them to purchasing! Or, on the bright side, 85%+ of homeowners make their payment on time! Closings, Prices ... closings are DOWN August, 2008. August, 2008, there were 6,825 closings, yet in August, 2009, there were only 4,449. The average price for a single family detached is up to $203,041, which is 13% lower than August, 2008. The recession low was in February at $172,860. The all-time high was in June of 2007 and was $284,873! There is also a concern that some banks are holding back about 30% of the foreclosed properties so to not flood the market and further depress prices. I don't know how true this information is, but I have seen this reported from several different sources, including Fox News. Some News on Inventory... The absorption rate is at 11.2%, meaning that if there were no other homes placed on the market, it would take 12 months to sell the homes we already have on the market. The inventory now is lower than a year ago by 12.4%. The last time the inventory was this low was March, 2006 at 49,000 homes. Prices are being driven down by foreclosure prices, which are usually somewhat 'fixer-uppers' and difficult to get financing for. Many people who foreclose are angry about losing their home and do damage to the home. Maybe they are also angry about a loss of a job. They also may have not maintained the property or knew how. These homes sell for a lower price which drives down the price of the neighborhood. There are no longer accurate figures for the 'true' market. We have averaged about 6,000 to 8500 foreclosures per month since last fall. Again, the number of foreclosure are driving the prices down in Georgia, and has been the major factor for the last 2 years of decline in the housing market. However, these foreclosure rates are centered in Atlanta, as it is with other large cities. Most of this appears to be due to the credit crunch and the loss of jobs. The jobless rate in Georgia is close to the highest (10.5%) it has ever been at 10.4%! It is still the highest since 1976, when they started tracking this number! This means that this number is above the national unemployment number at 9.7%. It is over 75% worse than last year! This number does not include those who have used up all their unemployment benefits, or who do not qualify for unemployment benefits. This group includes contractors such as builders, subcontractors, realtors, loan officers. There are new companies opening their doors in Atlanta! And, 89.6% of Atlantans have jobs! Here is foreclosure data for August (always a month behind) and below is another chart per county showing active listings, pending, and sold during last month per county:
| County | Number of Current Foreclosures, Non-foreclosures/% of market: | | Gwinnett | 1,702, up from 1,697 in July,
non-foreclosures = 73.1% of active listings, foreclosures = 26.9% | | Hall | 297, down from 327 in July,
non-foreclosures = 83.8% of active listings, foreclosures = 16.2% | | Forsyth | 422, up from 379 in July,
non-foreclosures = 81.6% of active listings, foreclosures = 18.4% | | Dekalb | 1016, up from 1013 in July,
non-foreclosures = 76% of active listings, foreclosures = 24% | | North Fulton | 849, up from 322 in July,
non-foreclosures = 79.3% of active listings, foreclosures = 20.7% | | Jackson | 114, down from 121 in July,
non-foreclosures = 80.1% of active listings, foreclosures = 19.9% | | Walton | 144, down from 172 in July,
non-foreclosures = 79.3% of active listings, foreclosures = 20.7% | | Barrow | 130, up from 123 in July,
non-foreclosures = 77.8% of active listings, foreclosures = 22.2% |
This all means that in the Northeast area, 77% of homes are on the market by the owner, and that 23% are foreclosures! Gwinnett County has the most foreclosures, followed by Barrow and Dekalb. The least amount of foreclosures is showing in Hall County.
 Advice to Home Buyers: For buyers, now is the time to get the best deals... just search for homes in the best condition. I can help you with that. If you have to put a lot of work and money into the house after closing, it may not mean you got a deal! Be sure to have your Realtor/Real Estate Planner verify the recent sales in the neighborhood of non-foreclosed homes to determine the price you should offer. Do not overpay! The listed price on your home of choice may be the fair market price. If it is, don't try to offer thousands less... unless you don't care about getting your home of choice. The condition of the home will also affect your ability to get a loan.
Do not believe that you can offer $25,000 less than the asking price. Most sellers have already lowered the price to be able to sell, and thus have already adjusted the price to the market, or the lowest they can go due to mortgage amount. No one out there right now is trying to make a killing on a sale. On the other hand, there are foreclosures that may take a really low offer right now, depending on location and the lender holding the real estate. I want to tell you a story about a short sale. We recently had a buyer for a short sale priced at $225,000. When reviewing the comps in the neighborhood, I recommended a price of $215,000 for the offer. Well there were other offers in to the bank at full price, so my buyer decided they wanted the house so bad, they would up the offer to $225,000. We waited, as you have to do when dealing with a bank. The listing agent called after weeks to say that the bank had circumvented all of us and made a deal with the owner to drop the rate, eliminate late fees and added interest, and the owner took the deal. He had a loan of $285,000! Some day, the bank is going to have the same problem when the owner wants to sell. It is crazy out there! Advice to Home Sellers: Current market conditions indicate that prices have bottomed, you would think. Now there will be even more homes available at lower prices yet. However, this does not mean that your home is priced correctly to sell. There is too much competition on the market now. Your home MUST be priced correctly and the condition of your home must be at its' best! I will also note that, reportedly, prices have actually increased in Duluth, according to Businss Week. Since many homeowners have cashed out their equity with Equity Lines or Second Mortgage, many homeowners now have more money mortgaged against their home than the value on the market. You need to know what your options are. The homeowner equity has also drastically dropped due to the lower sales prices caused by foreclosures and high inventory. If you still have some equity in today's market, today is the time to sell as you can also get great deals on your next home. Remember, ALL home prices are affected... not just your home! If you have to sell low, you should also be able to buy low! Whatever you do, do not expect a high price for your home, and low price for your next purchase!  TO BUYERS AND SELLERS: Home buyers and sellers are all people. I have found that they can get along and are not out to take advantage of each other (in general). Realtors are involved in the process to get the best for everyone and to keep everything legal, and to make sure that all the bases are covered! I am here to protect the interests of those I represent AND to smooth all the potential bumps along the way! The chart below indicates current inventory and sales:
The following data is by county in Northeast Atlanta (August, 2009) (LM = last month) COUNTY | ACTIVE
LISTINGS | PENDING | SOLD (closed)
SINCE 8/25/09 | | Gwinnett | 6335... LM 6893 | 1735... LM 1436 | 503... LM 480 | | Hall | 1830... LM 1920 | 297... LM 272 | 77... LM 91 | | Jackson | 574... LM 592 | 128... LM 66 | 22... LM 23 | | North Fulton | 4094... LM 2554 | 868... LM 519 | 245... LM 192 | | Dekalb | 4241... LM 4416 | 1369... LM 1284 | 332... LM 383 | | Barrow | 585... LM 636 | 184... LM 140 | 41... LM 44 | | Walton | 711... LM 759 | 163... LM 134 | 39... LM 35 | | Forsyth | 2287... LM 2435 | 503.... LM 469 | 122... LM 129 |
***** LM = last month
This data is from FMLS as of 09/27/2009, and deemed to be accurate by is not guaranteed. With luck, the 'pending' sales will become 'solds' by the end of the month. This chart will be updated at that time, as well as checking the MLS data. Please note that these figures are also reflective of the size of the county and number of residences in each county. |